MetaStock® SPRS Series - Week 144 – November 8, 2013 - MetaStock Spatial Pattern Recognition Skills Series written by Martha Stokes CMT
The Facebook IPO has left a nasty after taste for many retail investors and retail traders, who didn’t know what they needed to know about trading or investing in an IPO.
Now with Twitter’s IPO the retail side of the market is shunning this debut.
What makes a great IPO and what dooms other IPOs to failure? Why is WAGE a spectacular IPO from 2012 which TechniTrader Students learned about even before it IPO’d?
Here are 7 things to know about trading or investing in an IPO, but no one ever tells you.
- Retail investors and retail traders are not the most important investors for a new IPO. Wealthy individuals are not the most important investors, nor are professional traders. The Market Participant that truly matters in terms of the success of an IPO are the Giant and large Buy Side Institutions.
- To follow the Giant Buy Side institutions and to discover which IPO’s they are interested in, and which they are not buying is a simple matter of having the correct indicators that tell you when the Giants are buying. These indicators were written for our modern markets, whereas MACD, Stochastic, and other older indicators do not tell you this vital piece of information.
- The Institutional percentage ownership is important. Facebook had less than 2% institutional ownership in the first several months after it IPO’d, because the Giant funds shunned FB immediately and the collapse of the stock was due mostly to their lack of interest. A good IPO will have anywhere from 40-90% institutional ownership. This is because most smaller lot investors and smaller funds are afraid of investing in an IPO. This is because they do not know what information is needed to make a proper assessment of a young firm, and they listen to gurus and recommendation services that are only trying to dump a lot of IPO stock quickly.
- Revenues and Income matter but a company can have a strong IPO even if it is not making a profit yet, IF it is showing that it can make a profit within a quarter or couple of quarters. Giant institutions are long term investors and they will buy into a young firm ahead of strong earnings reports. They can tell when a company has what it takes to succeed.
- Find the Platforms. Quiet accumulation is a very distinct pattern on charts. Candlesticks form in a blocky tight formation with consistent highs and lows. This is due to the specialized order that the Giant Funds use regularly on Dark Pools. This specialized bracketed order is what keeps price in a Platform sideways pattern. This is a newer sideways pattern that first started showing up in charts less than a decade ago. It is a vital piece of chart analysis for retail investors and traders because it tells you if quiet accumulation is occurring. Giant Buy Side institutions keep their investments very private and do not reveal their holdings until they are required to do so quarterly. Only on stock charts can you quickly see what they are buying ahead of the quarterly reports.
- Company management is important to a new firm. It doesn’t matter how big a company is but how well it is managed. Facebook had several issues including too many private investors, nearly 500. Also there were too many private investors and insiders wanting to sell too early weakening the opinion of Facebook. The CEO and Board of Directors can make or break an IPO. It is not just the underwriter who must present the company.
- Shares offered at the Initial Public Offering. One of the biggest warning flags for Facebook was its enormous offering of shares. It was far too huge an offering for a good, strong IPO. Most great IPOs that launch and run like LNKD, WAGE, and others had small outstanding shares. What this does is it creates a strong supply versus demand equation for the stock which keeps the stock moving upward.
There are many simple ways to decide is an IPO is going to do well or not, but you won’t find this information in any commentary or guru recommendation. Understanding the internal dynamics of the market is where the true information you need resides.
For more information how to track the giant funds who use Dark Pools watch "Stock Indicators Online Training Video" at http://goo.gl/6NRQe9
Martha Stokes CMT
Member of Market Technicians Association
Master Rated Technical Analyst for Decisions Unlimited, Inc.
Instructor and Developer of TechniTrader Stock Market Courses
For additional training visit http://technitrader.com
This Stock Discussion and Training Lesson is sponsored by TechniTrader.com
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