Wednesday, February 10, 2016

METASTOCK LEIBOVIT VOLUME REVERSAL TUTORIAL FOR THE U.S. DOLLAR INDEX ETF - UUP - FEBRUARY 8, 2016

From the desk of Mark Leibovit, 

The U.S. Dollar Index (UUP) displayed here in a weekly format shows a clear negative pattern stretching back to March, 2015 when the first of series of Leibovit Negative Volume Reversals were formed. In fact, since March, 2015 there has not been one Leibovit Positive Volume Reversal. My expectations would be for further downside volatility in the U.S. Dollar Index.  

Monday, February 8, 2016

020516 MetaStock - Center Line Price Oscillators NEM chart

Center Line Price Oscillators
The Benefits of a New Type of Price Oscillator
Most Price Oscillators are designed strictly for overbought or oversold conditions. These indicators work well when price is oscillating between a high and low range, but tend to show overbought signals when a stock is about to go momentum. The tendency for these the older style overbought/oversold price oscillators is to show an overbought crossover signal as price begins momentum action, which often causes Technical Traders to exit a trade just before huge profits could have been captured.
By using a Center Line Price Oscillator during momentum phases of price action Technical Traders can hold, instead of selling just as the stock is about to run with strong velocity or momentum action.
The TechniTrader® Center Line Price Oscillator called TTRSI uses a floating center line that provides flexible indicator action as price moves up. It is ideal for momentum and velocity price action as it will reveal the underlying momentum, whereas a standard price high/low range oscillator such as Stochastic shows an exteme overbought pattern that most traders use as an exit signal.
The chart example below shows the TTRSI indicator with center line oscillation in the middle chart window, and Stochastic in the bottom chart window for easy comparison.

This indicator is designed for analysis of price during a momentum or velocity run, and it is superior to Stochastics for momentum analysis.
Traders using Stochastic would have exited prior to the big gain day missing out on the largest one day gain for this run, that continued the next day. RSI then indicates the run has fatigued, and the risk of profit taking at this point means either exit or tighten the intraday stop loss.
Summary
Center Line Price Oscillators are superior to standard overbought/oversold price oscillators during momentum and velocity Market Conditions. Momentum or velocity price action occurs after giant lot Buy Side Institutions have been accumulating a stock for some time by suing Dark Pools.  When Professional Traders and High Frequency Trading firms HFTs discover this accumulation then they drive price upward out of Bottoms, minor Corrections, Platforms, Consolidations, and Compression Patterns.
Using a Center Line Oscillator for price enables Traders to hold longer, and enjoy the gains of a momentum or velocity run.
Trade Wisely,
Martha Stokes CMT
TechniTrader technical analysis using a MetaStock chart, courtesy of Innovative Market Analysis, LLC dba MetaStock

Instructor & Developer of TechniTrader Stock & Option Courses

©2016  Decisions Unlimited, Inc. dba TechniTrader.  All rights reserved.
TechniTrader is also a registered trademark of Decisions Unlimited, Inc.

Disclaimer: All statements are the opinions of TechniTrader, its instructors and/or employees, and are not to be construed as anything more than an opinion. TechniTrader is not a broker or an investment advisor; it is strictly an educational service. There is risk in trading financial assets and derivatives. Due diligence is required for any investment. It should not be assumed that the methods or techniques presented cannot result in losses. Examples presented are for educational purposes only.



Monday, February 1, 2016

Citigroup Opportunity from the desk of Top Market Timer Mark Leibovit.

From the desk of Top Market Timer Mark Leibovit.  

A positive Leibovit Volume Reversal in Citicorp (C) confirmed by a rising 5/3/3 stochastic is a buy signal in my analysis.  A stop would be kept at 39.44 and a trading target of 45.81 would be set.

Monday, January 25, 2016

LEIBOVIT VOLUME REVERSAL TUTORIAL FOR UNITED STATES OIL - OIL - JANUARY 25, 2016

A rising 5/3/3 stochastic for eight days presaged Thursday's Positive Leibovit Volume Reversal in USO which was the buy trigger to jump on to the long side. The Volume Reversal (VR) comes as close to the proverbial 'bell and whistle' at market tops and bottoms and Wednesday may have indeed been the big low.  Not knowing that at VRtrader.com we decided to take the trade with a view to repurchase if the opening gap on Friday is filled this week using Wednesday's low as a stop.

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

A recent series of Leibovit Positive Volume Reversals (VRs) confirmed the recent surge in the Treasury Bond market.

From the desk of Mark Leibovit, 

A recent series of Leibovit Positive Volume Reversals (VRs) confirmed the recent surge in the Treasury Bond market.  Note the VRs on December 31, January 6, and January 12 in the accompanying video. Also, note the confirmation of the 5/3/3 stochastic during this process. A big Leibovit Positive VR back on November 12 pretty much kicked into gear this entire up leg. 


Tuesday, December 22, 2015

121815 MS Weekly - What is Missing in Your Risk Analysis?


Risk Analysis versus Gain Profit Potential

The least used and most often improperly used analysis by Technical and Retail Traders is Risk

Analysis. All too often, Traders are choosing high risk stock picks without realizing it. This

analysis is NOT using percentages, but rather using the technical patterns within the chart in

order to do the following:

1. Find the lowest Risk trade from a group of potential stock picks.

2. Determine the Risk versus the Gain Profit Potential BEFORE placing an order.

3. Determining the correct Stop Loss placement to avoid setting the Stop at a whipsaw

point, or not using a Stop at all due to not knowing how to use and set them correctly.

4. Selecting the strongest picks based on Risk Analysis, which reveals weaknesses in stock

picks that do not show up in Candlestick Patterns or MACD patterns.

5. Choosing stocks with Risk that you can tolerate. Too many times traders get greedy, and

choose picks that have higher Risk than they are ready to accept.

First of all, Stop Losses should NEVER be calculated using Percentages. This is an ancient, out of

date method that is the main reason why so many Retail Traders believe that Stop Losses do

not work. They are accidentally and unintentionally setting Stops based on a Percentage that

puts them right in the middle of a profit taking area where High Frequency Trading HFT will

trigger, OR where Dark Pool bargain hunting Time Weighted Average Price TWAP orders are

sitting and waiting for price to drop into that range.

Trading the automated markets along with Market Participant Groups that use Time Weighted

Average Price TWAP orders, Volume Weighted Average Price VWAP orders, and High Frequency

Trading HFT predatory millisecond orders requires using MODERN analysis and tools. It is hard

to abandon techniques learned on the internet that appear everywhere but in order to be

successful, Traders need to change how they approach trading.

When choosing a stock to trade among a group of stock picks, consider the Risk of the trade

based on technical Support levels appropriate for your Trading Style. Trading Styles include

Intraday Swing, Swing/Momentum Trading, Position Trading, and several others.

Strategies are selected AFTER a Trading Style has been chosen. Certain Trading Styles require

specific technical patterns, candlesticks, and Support levels for optimal trading success.  Buying

long versus Selling Short also changes Support and Resistance levels for each Trading Style.

As a chart example for Risk Analysis see Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) below, which has an

Engulfing Black candlestick Sell Short signal.


As a Sell Short pick consideration, the chart shows that the Resistance is above price as

indicated by the red line. This is where the Stop Loss must be set rather than a Percentage. A

tight Percentage puts the Stop Loss in the middle of the Resistance which will create a whipsaw,

and a larger percentage such as 8 or 10% puts the Stop Loss far too wide adding Risk to the

trade.

The next area of calculation must be the Support, which is where the stock is likely to bounce

up as indicated by the green line. This is the highs of November, and may not hold over time

but is the first level of Support for this stock if it sells down further. Support therefore is based

not on a Percentage but the technical levels where bounces occur from Buy to Cover

professionals closing their position, OR from “Buy on the Dip” Small Lot Investors rushing to buy

into what they believe is a bargain.

Summary

By calculating the difference between the Resistance and the Entry Price, the Risk of the trade

is determined. By calculating the Support level where the stock is mostly likely to pause or

bounce, the run Gain Profit Potential is determined. The final step is dividing the points at Risk

by the points Gain Potential. Risk to Profit should be 3/1 or higher. Most of the time Retail

Traders are trading stocks with higher points at Risk than there are potential points to Gain.

Taking the time to calculate Risk using Risk Analysis will significantly improve your profitability

by eliminating high risk and low profit trades.

Trade Wisely,

Martha Stokes CMT

TechniTrader technical analysis using a MetaStock chart, courtesy of Innovative Market Analysis, LLC dba

MetaStock.

www.TechniTrader.com

Chartered Market Technician

Instructor & Developer of TechniTrader Stock and Option Courses

This weekly stock discussion is sponsored by TechniTrader.com a MetaStock® Partner



Copyright ©2015 Decisions Unlimited, Inc. dba TechniTrader. All rights reserved.

TechniTrader is also a registered trademark of Decisions Unlimited, Inc.



Disclaimer: All statements are the opinions of TechniTrader, its instructors and/or employees, and are not to be construed as

anything more than an opinion. TechniTrader is not a broker or an investment advisor; it is strictly an educational service. There

is risk in trading financial assets and derivatives. Due diligence is required for any investment. It should not be assumed that the

methods or techniques presented cannot result in losses. Examples presented are for educational purposes only.

Monday, December 14, 2015

LEIBOVIT VR TUTORIAL FOR METASTOCK - U.S. OIL - USO - DEC 14, 2015

From the desk of Mark Leibovit

The decline in Crude Oil both longer term and short term were clearly signaled by the Leibovit Volume Reversal. I am often asked how the Leibovit Volume Reversal works in different time frames.  Here, we look at the monthly, weekly and daily charts.  All are demonstrated  utilizing the Sequential version of the Leibovit Volume Reversal. When you subscribe you receive all three versions (Sequential, Directional and 2-Day)  but I prefer using the Sequential because it shows all negative and positive Leibovit Volume Reversals. Please check the video on the Metastock product page for more information.  In the monthly chart, note the big negative Leibovit VR formed in July, 2014 confirmed by the declining 5/3/3 stochastic presaged the huge multi-month sell-off that is still occurring now. The weekly chart shows the two recent negative Leibovit VRs on Nov 9 and Nov 30 which provided additional confirmation of the current short-term downtrend - again confirmed by a negative 5/3/3 stochastic. And, finally, the daily chart reveals the Nov 25 negative Leibovit VR, the most recent short-term trading signal also confirmed by a declining 5/3/3 stochastic.


https://youtu.be/GnKftSG1_HY

Happy Trading
Jeffrey Gibby
Business Development Manager