Monday, April 20, 2015

From the Desk of Top Market Timer Mark Leibovit

Using the Sequential VR (posting of all VRs for the time period selected), A weekly Leibovit Positive VR was posted on January 5th, March 6th and this past week (4/13) - all clearly defining an uptrend for GWPH (GW Pharmaceuticals) - the leading Medical Cannabis play.  Normally, I would expect to see an orderly advance, so a retracement back to 102.90 would be expected.  Beyond that, using my 'Swing Theory', a potential move to 164.76 is a strong possibility over the near-term.

http://youtu.be/9jnmM59adX4

Thursday, April 16, 2015

041715 MSWeekly Anatomy Of A Stock Bottom

Candlestick Patterns and Large Lot Indicators
Short term bottoms are often a sideways pattern that slowly rises out of the low. Sometimes it is hard to see this as a bottom developing, because price is moving in such a choppy up and down pattern each day. One great way to decide whether a bottom is underway or not, is to use TechniTrader® Quiet Accumulation TTQA indicator to see if there is quiet accumulation underway by the Dark Pools.
Shareholder Supremacy in Stock Market.png
The chart example below shows that a bottom is clearly underway when you study the TTQA indicator in relation to Volume bars.  C:\Users\Adrienne\AppData\Local\Microsoft\Windows\Temporary Internet Files\Content.Word\041715 MSWeekly image #1.png
The top is defined by the High Frequency Traders HFTs trigger order, followed by many smaller funds rushing to buy. The combination of the green Volume spike to the top of the middle chart window and the heavy green TTQA in the bottom chart window, is the footprint of these Market Participant Groups. The small lots and smaller funds create the top as professionals start taking profits. As the stock falls into a correction, the red TTQA forms exposing selling short and some fund rotation. Then the stock starts what looks like another leg down, however TTQA turns gray and green which is the footprint of the giant funds that use Dark Pools as outlined by the green box in the bottom chart window.
In the chart example below as the green TTQA forms, the stock makes a higher low and begins the process of building its bottom.
C:\Users\Adrienne\Pictures\041715 MSWeekly image #2.png
This is an up and down action within a range of price. As long as price stays within that range, TTQA remains green and accumulation continues.
As shown in the next chart example below the accumulation continues for many days, and the stock slowly moves up.
C:\Users\Adrienne\Pictures\041715 MSWeekly image #3.png
TTQA turns green as the price moves slightly out of the quiet accumulation zone. This is one of the most reliable patterns for determining when a stock has reached its bottom low, and is likely to start forming a true bottom.
Summary
Price will continue to move up and down during accumulation, because the giant institutions who are buying are quietly accumulating over time, and using a price range to do so.
Learning to identify bottoms early helps avoid whipsaw losses when selling short. It also helps the retail trader prepare to buy into the stock as it completes the bottom, and begins to accelerate with momentum energy.
Trade Wisely,
Martha Stokes CMT

www.TechniTrader.com
Instructor & Developer of TechniTrader Stock and Option Courses
This weekly stock discussion is sponsored by TechniTrader.com a MetaStock® Partner

©2015 Decisions Unlimited, Inc. dba TechniTrader. All rights reserved.
TechniTrader is also a registered trademark of Decisions Unlimited, Inc.

Disclaimer: All statements are the opinions of TechniTrader, its instructors and/or employees, and are not to be construed as anything more than an opinion. TechniTrader is not a broker or an investment advisor; it is strictly an educational service. There is risk in trading financial assets and derivatives. Due diligence is required for any investment. It should not be assumed that the methods or techniques presented cannot result in losses. Examples presented are for educational purposes only.

Sunday, April 12, 2015

LEIBOVIT VR UPDATE ON FXI - THE CHINA ETF

From the desk of Mark Leibovit.

http://youtu.be/rQihyF-ymQg

Hong Kong Chinese shares soared last week, but followers of my Leibovit VR Indicator received two buy signals ahead of the dramatic surge - one on March 27 and another on April 1 - both shown on the accompanying video and both confirmed by a positive 5/3/3 stochastic.  Here we are extended and I would look for a retracement back to he old high around 47.99 posted November 8, 2010 and possibly back down to 46.00. There are gaps at 49.42, 46.70 and 43.83 that traders should keep in mind when evaluating the risk/reward of any trade in FXI.

Friday, April 10, 2015

041015 MSWeekly – How To Track Lge Lot Institutions

How To Track Large Lot Institutions
Patterns In Stock Charts
Main challenges individual investors and retail traders face today, are figuring out when High Frequency Traders are going to suddenly appear and when Dark Pools are quietly buying or selling. There are distinct candlestick and indicator patterns to tracking the Large Lot Institutions that use Dark Pools, which repeats over time.
C:\Users\Adrienne\Downloads\Depositphotos_5481813_s.jpg
The following is the cycle of the buying pattern step by step:
  1. Dark Pools are buying into a stock. Their interest in a stock is no longer seen on the market maker limit books prior to the execution of their trade because they use Alternative Trading Systems ATS. These are giant Mutual and Pension Fund investors buying for the long term, most of the time.
  2. Professional and Floor traders who are closer to the action of the Dark Pools, jump in for short term trade action. Some are Intraday traders while others are Swing traders.
  3. High Frequency Traders HFTs discover the Dark Pools either via a notification once the Dark Pools have bought what they want which is a news alert, viewing the transactions posted after clearing, or due to a ripple in Volume. The ripple in Volume occurs when a Dark Pool order cannot be totally filled on the Alternative Trading System ATS platform, so some of the order is filled on the exchanges.
  4. Smaller funds chase the HFTs due to news, causing price to surge with emotional responses to the HFT action.
  5. Retail traders chase the smaller funds ending up getting into a stock just as a whipsaw or reversal occurs, due to sudden profit taking by the HFTs.
This pattern of buying is repeated over and over, often frustrating retail traders who unwittingly get in the way or buy unaware of who is controlling price at that time.
The buying patterns can be seen in the stock charts, and every individual investor and retail trader should learn them. Part of the pattern is in Price, part is in Volume, and part is in large lot versus small lot indicators.
C:\Users\Adrienne\Pictures\041015 MSWeekly chart image.png
The first candle indicated by the red arrows on the far right is HFTs which is evident in Price, Volume, and the indicator TechniTrader Quiet Accumulation TTQA.
The green vertical rectangle is Dark Pools and Professional Traders buying. Dark Pools are accumulating, while Professional Trades are trading short term. The small green horizontal rectangle is the high price range or top level price for the quiet accumulation buyers. They will not buy any higher than this, which means Professional Traders are going to take profits.
That brings the price down to the support low, which is the trigger level for more quiet accumulation. Meanwhile quiet accumulation is still going on, while uninformed retail traders are trying to sell this stock short. They struggle to push price down but due to lack of numbers, they are unable to control price.
Then as quiet accumulation ceases HFTs gap down price at market open, then drive it down on an inconsequential retail news item, and quiet accumulation drives it right back up.
But smaller funds chase HFTS trying to sell or sell short. It goes deeper this time as quiet accumulators wait, then start buying again. This is discovered by the HFTs which gap price up with high volume.
Summary
Learning to read charts properly is not just using an indicator cross over or a candlestick pattern. Relational Analysis™ must be applied to really understand who is in control of price. If you can recognize when the Large Lot Institutions control price and you know which groups chase price, then you will have a much stronger understanding of what price is going to do near term. In addition, recognizing the levels where quiet accumulation will trigger because these are automated orders, will help you avoid being on the wrong side of the trade. Being on the wrong side of the trade aka trading against the Large Lot Institutions is the main reason retail traders have so many losses.
Trade Wisely,
Martha Stokes CMT
www.TechniTrader.com

Instructor & Developer of TechniTrader Stock and Option Courses
This weekly stock discussion is sponsored by TechniTrader.com a MetaStock® Partner

©2015 Decisions Unlimited, Inc. dba TechniTrader. All rights reserved.
TechniTrader is also a registered trademark of Decisions Unlimited, Inc.

Disclaimer: All statements are the opinions of TechniTrader, its instructors and/or employees, and are not to be construed as anything more than an opinion. TechniTrader is not a broker or an investment advisor; it is strictly an educational service. There is risk in trading financial assets and derivatives. Due diligence is required for any investment. It should not be assumed that the methods or techniques presented cannot result in losses. Examples presented are for educational purposes only.




Monday, April 6, 2015

LEIBOVIT VR TUTORIAL ON METASTOCK FOR SPY ON APRIL 6, 2015

From the desk of top market timer Mark Leibovit.



A series of of Leibovit Negative VRs (Volume Reversals -tm) since early March has presented a clearly bearish and distributive pattern to the S&P 500.  Cyclically, I tend to look for low point in March followed by a recovery into a May peak - recall 'Sell May and Go Away'.  It's early April and the FED could pull out all stops and announce QE4 (which is inevitable in my opinion), but for now until we see Leibovit Positive VRs and/or a breakout above recent highs, I would presume the market will go lower.  Support is at the green 200 day moving average which at 200 in SPY.

http://youtu.be/7h1gzoUGXBM

Happy trading.
Jeff Gibby.  

Friday, April 3, 2015

Wilder’s RSI vs Stochastic Indicator

Exposing Bottoming Pattern Strength Prior To Gaps Up
Stochastic is the most popular of all of the Price Oscillators available for stock chart analysis.  Indicators should be set up for your own personal trading style and trading parameters. Being as specialized and proprietary as you can possibly be with your own unique set of trading indicators is a huge plus, and gives you a decided edge against the professionals in the market.
Using an indicator that is overly popular can be detrimental to your success as a trader. It can be hard to switch to a less known indicator because most traders want to be part of the crowd.  But being part of the retail crowd means you are constantly at higher risk of whipsaw trades, as “Cluster Orders” are constantly being tracked by the High Frequency Trading Firms HFTs.
C:\Users\Adrienne\Downloads\Depositphotos_4872789_s.jpg
Wilder’s RSI is not widely used these days and has the added feature of being highly adaptable and modified. Below in the middle chart window is an example of how I set up this indicator for my TechniTrader® Students.

As with volume oscillators, a center line oscillation feature for Wilder’s RSI adds depth to the analysis. Instead of looking at merely Overbought/Oversold patterns of highs and lows, when the RSI starts to waver around its center line it exposes the bottoming pattern of the stock before it gaps up.
Stochastic as it is traditionally used strictly for Overbought/Oversold, is not exposing the bottoming action underway. The oscillation actually causes whipsaw risks during this bottoming phase.
Using RSI to expose the strength of the bottom via a center line that floats with price direction, tells you far more about the strength of the sideways pattern and the decided upside direction, even though price is still sideways.
In addition RSI is a very different formula compared to Stochastic. Wilder wrote it to expose whether the current price was stronger or weaker than “X period” or number of days ago.  Therefore what you are looking at is a Relative Strength relationship between the current price and “x number of periods” aka days ago.
Therefore RSI can and does expose strengthening price action to the upside or downside in a sideways pattern. This is a huge benefit for traders because the markets move sideways about 60% of the time.
Summary
Although Stochastic is great for exposing the Overbought/Oversold aspects of a sideways pattern, what is even more important is to be able to anticipate what direction the stock will move and how fast it will move out of a sideways pattern.
RSI is superior in revealing strengthening price action, which in turn exposes momentum prior to gaps and fast runs. Use RSI as the market begins to bottom. It is a very underrated indicator traders can use to see momentum building prior to huge price gains.
Trade Wisely,
Martha Stokes CMT
www.TechniTrader.com

Instructor & Developer of TechniTrader Stock and Option Courses
This weekly stock discussion is sponsored by TechniTrader.com a MetaStock® Partner

©2015 Decisions Unlimited, Inc. dba TechniTrader. All rights reserved.
TechniTrader is also a registered trademark of Decisions Unlimited, Inc.

Disclaimer: All statements are the opinions of TechniTrader, its instructors and/or employees, and are not to be construed as anything more than an opinion. TechniTrader is not a broker or an investment advisor; it is strictly an educational service. There is risk in trading financial assets and derivatives. Due diligence is required for any investment. It should not be assumed that the methods or techniques presented cannot result in losses. Examples presented are for educational purposes only.

Monday, March 30, 2015

032715 MS Weekly - Changing Landscape ETF Trading

Changing Landscape of ETF Trading
About Exchange Traded Products
Recently the world of Exchange Traded Funds ETFs has evolved into far more than the original concept of offering an alternative for Mutual Fund investors. As Money Central Banks have quietly under the radar acquired commodity companies in particular energy companies over the past few years, new trading and investing instruments have emerged.
No longer are ETFs merely Index Funds or Mutual Funds converted to an exchange tradable instrument. The new Exchange Traded Derivatives now offer a far broader scope of various financial markets providing more opportunities for individual investors and retail traders.

C:\Users\Adrienne\Downloads\Depositphotos_4603426_s.jpg
Most retail traders assume that an Exchange Traded Derivative whether it be it an Exchange Traded Fund ETF, Exchange Traded Note ETN, Exchange Traded Product ETP, or INDEX Fund can be “traded just like a stock.”  Theoretically that is a true statement but in actual real time trading how you trade an ETF, ETN, or ETP requires an understanding of how and why the ETD was created. This includes its intended targeted Market Participant Groups, its underlying Sponsor or Issuer and their intent, whether it is leveraged and by how much, whether it is weighted and how it is weighted, and the affect those conditions have on its price action.
As an example Giant Banks are starting to control energy and commodities via ownership in key companies and sectors. With their vested interest in energy and commodities the largest Exchange Traded Derivatives Sponsors and Issuers, are creating new Exchange Traded Products based on energy and commodities that correlate to Futures trading of these commodities.
Therefore learning how to use these new trading instruments to your advantage is crucial if choosing to trade these new ETDs.
A good example of these new trading instruments is the chart example below, created by a Money Central Bank for a publicly traded company.
It is not only a commodity ETP, it is also leveraged which means it moves 3 points for every 1 point move of the underlying asset in its Trust Fund.
This can be a useful new trading instrument for some retail traders who specialze in certain Commodities, Futures, or Index trading. However it is not ideal for beginners, novices, and those who have little education, training, or experience with leveraged ETPs and how the underlying Futures Market can impact this trading instrument on the stock exchanges.
This ETP will not trade “just like a stock.” It will react to the leveraging, weighting, and Futures Commodities Markets. It will also be affected by leverage adjustments that must be made by the issuers as the trust to the ETP becomes out of balance. This can occur mid-day for many of these instruments.
One rule all professional traders adhere to strictly is never trade an instrument you do not fully understand, have a complete education on how it works, why it moves the way it does, what indicators to use, and what trading style to use. Professionals do not rush to trade new instruments without first learning all they can about the underlying assets that can affect the ETP price action, which Market Participant Groups the ETP was created for, and how they intend to use if for long term investing or short term trading. Most losses retail traders have are due to an incomplete education, rushing into trading a new instrument they do not have adequate training or information on, and no experience for that new trading instrument.
Trade Wisely,
Martha Stokes CMT
www.TechniTrader.com

Instructor & Developer of TechniTrader Stock and Option Courses
This weekly stock discussion is sponsored by TechniTrader.com a MetaStock® Partner

©2015 Decisions Unlimited, Inc. dba TechniTrader. All rights reserved.
TechniTrader is also a registered trademark of Decisions Unlimited, Inc.

Disclaimer: All statements are the opinions of TechniTrader, its instructors and/or employees, and are not to be construed as anything more than an opinion. TechniTrader is not a broker or an investment advisor; it is strictly an educational service. There is risk in trading financial assets and derivatives. Due diligence is required for any investment. It should not be assumed that the methods or techniques presented cannot result in losses. Examples presented are for educational purposes only.