Monday, November 14, 2016

What does Trump's Shocking Win mean for the Markets?

This weekend we hosted our Online Traders Summit.

It was a great event.  John Thomas, one of our guest speakers had some really good points about what the Trump win will mean for the markets going forward.  

I wanted to share some of his insight with you.  Here is his special report on how the election will affect your trading.  

From the desk of John Thomas:

Global Market Comments
November 14, 2016
Fiat Lux

Special New World Order Issue

Featured Trade:
(TRUMP’S GIFT TO TRADERS)
(SPY), (TLT), (TBT), (GLD), (USO), (CAT),
 (X), (FCX), (BAC), (GS), (LEN), (ITB),




Trump’s Gift to Traders

In 50 years of trading, I have never seen markets turn on a dime as they did last week. As a result, they have created some of the best trading opportunities of the century.

The sector rotation has been fast and furious. And trading volumes across all asset classes exploded to their highest levels in years.

Of course, they were responding to the biggest election upset in history, which flipped the direction of the global economy 180 degrees in a heartbeat.

I am suddenly reminded of economist John Maynard Keynes’ most famous quote: “When the facts change, I change. What do you do sir?”

My ancestors hailed from Missouri, before they moved to California during the1849 gold rush. Their black and white tintypes adorn the walls of my Lake Tahoe estate.

Every time I cross Donner Pass on Interstate 80, I remember their gaunt grim faces.

And you know what the state motto of Missouri is?

“SHOW ME!”

Incredible as it may seem, I am already in touch with several senior officials of the Trump administration, thanks to my ancient Wall Street ties.

That will give me an early read on which Trump policies are campaign fluff, which will be seriously watered down, and the few that will get actually implemented.

And as everyone in the financial markets knows, this is trading gold.

Early indications are that the incoming economic policies will be Reagan 2.0.

I remember well the jovial, backslapping president, who served from 1982-90, and who I knew too well for 25 years.

For three decades, he campaigned from the far right, championing McCarthyism, bemoaning Rowe versus Wade, demanding a balanced budget, and constantly warning of the communist threat.

The day he got into office he forget all of this, negotiating huge arms reductions treaties with the Russians, and never lifting a finger to curtail women’s rights.

We do know how Reagan 1.0 ended. Thanks to large tax cuts and massive spending increases, the national debt skyrocketed 400%, from $1 trillion to $4 trillion. The bond market got killed.

And despite all his saber rattling on the campaign trail, Reagan never ensnared America in a single serious war.

Trump could well do the same. The big shock of the decade would be how fast trump rushes to the middle.

But he has to “show me” first.

I am expecting a similar result with Reagan 2.0. Certainly the bond market thinks so, the ten year Treasury yield adding a hair raising 40 basis points in yield in a mere three days.


What we do know for sure is virtually the entire investment industry has been caught seriously wrong footed by the Trump win.

They were all, to a man, perfectly positioned for was a Clinton win, and owned a heavily weighted Clinton portfolio.

What they got was a Trump world.

IT WILL TAKE YEARS FOR INSTUTIONS ROTATE SECTORS, AND REPOSITION FOR THE NEW WORLD ORDER.


This is nothing less than the greatest gift to traders of all time.

There is one great structural tailwind to this unbelievable sector rotation.

It takes you out of over owned expensive sectors close to all time highs that have been leading the market for most of this decade, like technology.

It moves you into under owned cheap sectors that have been despised for years, such as financials, heath care, commodities, and energy.

That’s fine with me. I was getting tired of chasing technology for small incremental gains at the risk of gigantic one day crashes, some four in the last 15 months.

You can make a lot more money buying stocks off of 5 year bottoms than seven year tops.

Maybe I can squeeze a few thousands basis points of performance out in 2016?

I have presented four Emergency Strategy Webinars for major hedge funds, clients, and the Online Trader’s Summit in as many days.

Financial advisors tell me they are finding the bullet points contained enormously helpful in explaining the New World Order to their clients.

So I am giving them in full to you below:



The New World Order

*Control of the Presidency, the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the Supreme Court means the Republicans have a free hand

*Republicans blocked fiscal spending for eight years, but will now move full steam ahead

*$1 trillion in new infrastructure spending in the Midwest amounts to Quantitative Easing 5.0

*Massive Keynesian stimulus could double US
economic growth in the short term

*Inflation will make an earlier return

*It all adds up to a big “RISK ON” and “BUY!”

The New Big Trends
Out With the New, In With the Old



Winners:

Value
The Economy
Deregulation
Taxpayers
Domestic US stocks
Defense Stocks
Inflation
Oil & Gas
Commodity Stocks
Bridges and Freeways
The Midwest Rust Belt
The US Dollar
Savers
Homeowners
Cheap Stocks

The New Stock Plays

Get These Right and You’ll Retire Early

(CAT)
Caterpillar-Infrastructure
(X)
US Steel- infrastructure
(NUE)
Nucor Steel
(PFE)
Pfizer-Big Pharma
(LLY)
Ely Lily Big Pharma
(LMT)
Lockheed Martin - Defense
(FCX)
Freeport McMoRan Commodities
(XOM)
ExxonMobil Big Oil
(OXY)
Occidental Petroleum Energy
(BAC)
Bank of America Financials
(GS)
Goldman Sachs - Financials
(LEN)
Lenar Homes- Homebuilding


Losers:

Growth
Globalization
Regulation
Multinational Stocks
Telecom and Utilities
Emerging Markets
The Budget Deficit
Solar Energy
Bonds
Yield Plays
The Euro
The Japanese Yen
Borrowers
Renters
Expensive Stocks

The Old Stock Plays

Time to Say “Thank You Very Much” and Unload

(GOOG)
Alphabet- Technology
(AAPL)
Apple- Technology
(FB)
Facebook-Technology
(AMZN)
Amazon - Technology
(TSLA) - Tesla
Electric Cars
(FSLR)
First Solar - Solar Panels
(SPWR)
SunPower Solar Panels
(GM)
General Motors Globalization
(EWW)
Mexico ETF
(FXI)
China ETF
(FXE)
Euro ETF
(FXY)
Japanese Yen ETF
(GLD)
Gold
(T)
AT&T - Telecommunications


The Bond Market: The Fat Lady is Singing

Sell Short every 5 Point Rally in the (TLT) for the next Ten Years

*Bonds are Toast

*The first fiscal stimulus in eight years will pour $1 trillion into infrastructure
spending

*Taxes will be cut across the board, concentrated for the wealthy and business

*Replenishing of the military adds further spending demands

*All of this adds $10 trillion to the national
debt in 8 years

*Throw in a new war and that doubles
to $20 trillion

*Is a replay of the 400% rise in national
debt under Reagan during 1982-90,
when Treasury bond yields hit 12%

*Interest rates will rocket, Buy the (TBT)


Foreign Currencies-Dollar Rally Continues

*Rising interest rates have the US dollar rocketing against all other currencies

*Interest rate differentials are the biggest driver of foreign exchange rates

*Buy the (UUP) ETF, calls, call spreads, and futures on dips

*Yen fundamentals are as bad as ever, will be the last to raise interest rates, if ever, expect a long term decline, sell short (FXY), or buy the (YCS)

*Future of Euro is dependent on an EC breakup, or not


Energy-The Double-Edged Sword

*Stronger economy is oil positive

*But a trade war with China, the world’s largest marginal new consumer, could cause demand to slow there

*Any run up to $60 will see new US fracking
production pour into the market

*So sell rallies up to $52, buy dips to $40


Precious Metals-Trumped!

*Spiking interest rates are hugely negative for gold

*Current selloff creates a great entry point
 for long term investors

*When inflation really show, that I
when you want to pile back into gold

*China and emerging nations have to buy
 several thousand tonnes to bring
 holdings up to western level

Should take prices from $1,250 to
 $5,000 an ounce in 15 years



Real Estate - A 20-Year Boom


*Millennial demographic wave is about to drive US home prices northward for the next 20 years

*Only 2.4 million homes for sale, down -6.8% YOY, creating a severe shortage, normally rises in the fall, and predicts a very hot market in the spring

*US homebuilding is proceeding at less than half the peaks seen in the 2000s, despite rapidly rising demand, creating a structural shortage

*Home equity has been the top
performing individually owned
asset class for the past 5 years

*All this makes homebuilders a big
long term “BUY”




Trade Sheet- So What Do We Do About All This?

*Stocks- Buy
*Bonds-Sell
*Commodities-Buy
*Currencies- Sell
*Precious Metals –Buy
*Real Estate-Buy

Quote of the Day

Managing money is going to be fun over the next six months,” said Jeffrey Gundlach of Double Line, on the surprise Trump election win.

For more information on John Thomas, visit www.madhedgefundtrader.com.

This is not a solicitation to buy or sell securities

The Mad Hedge Fund Trader and Innovative Market Analysis are not a Investment advisors.

For full disclosures click here at
http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/disclosures
The "Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader"(TM) and the "Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (TM) are protected by the United States Patent and Trademark Office
The "Diary of the Mad Hedge Fund Trader" (C) is protected by the United States Copyright Office

Futures trading involves a high degree of risk and may not be suitable for everyone.


Monday, October 17, 2016

VOLUME REVERSAL TUTORIAL FOR AVON - AVP

In today's video, top market timer Mark Leibovit reviews Avon.



Enjoy.

Happy Trading
Jeff Gibby
Business Development Manager

Monday, September 26, 2016

Looking at Twitter

Top Market Timer, Mark Leibovit takes a look at Twitter in this four minute video:

https://youtu.be/tnHSirklu4w

Happy Trading.


Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Adding a list of Weekly Options to MetaStock


A frequent question from MetaStock users is how to get a list of weekly options into MetaStock.  

 I've prepared a Spreadsheet that includes all of the CBOE Weekly Options Symbols.  Since I've put all the symbols in the Reuters Instrument Codes, it is ready to be used in MetaStock.  

To add these to MetaStock simply follow these simple instructions.

1) Open the spreadsheet file here.
2) Choose the Download option in the upper right hand side of your screen. 
3) Open the File when it completes Downloading.  
4) Open MetaStock and Click on the Chart option in the PowerConsole.
5) Right Click on the Custom Online Data List as shown in the screen capture below













6) Choose New
7) Type in name for your list under List Name
8) Go back to your spreadsheet and highlight column A by clicking on the column header.  
9) Click Ctrl-C to copy the list to your clipboard.  
10) Toggle back to your new custom list. 
11) Hover your mouse over the blank area and use Ctrl-V to past your clipboard into the new list

It should look like this:



















Click on the Save button to save this.  

Your new list is available and ready to use!












Thanks for using MetaStock!

Happy Trading.

Jeff Gibby
Business Development Manager.  

Tuesday, September 6, 2016

Friday, August 19, 2016

Day Trading E Mini S&P 500 Profitably using CUE Global

From the desk of Sagar Nandi and Superior Profit

Day Trading on E-Mini Future is possible almost 24 hours a day. Almost every day of the week.

CUE Global is a complete system that is used by investors and traders. From Long Term Investment to Swing Trade to Day Trade. All over the world.

Traders use CUE System to trade all sorts of instruments: Stock, ETF, Option, Future, Forex.

On 15th August 2016 I had posted a blog describing in detail one way I use CUE System for Forex Day Trading. You may read that Forex Day Trade blog here.

And just a few days before that; on 11th August 2016; I also posted a blog describing a real life Stock Day Trade using CUE Charts.  You may read that Stock Day Trade blog here.

Some readers requested me to post a blog on Day Trading E-Mini Future using CUE System. I am writing this blog to explain that.

CUE System techniques used to Day Trade Stock, Forex, Future, etc. are interchangeable. So all E-Mini Future Day Traders will gain valuable insight from the two blogs mentioned above. Just as Stock and Forex Day Traders will gain valuable insight from this post.

In the Stock and Forex examples, I looked at only the instrument that I was trading. I did not use correlated instruments. Instead, I looked at Longer Timeframe (Daily and; optionally; Weekly) to decide my Trade Direction and used Real Time CUE Chart to execute the Day Trade in that pre-planned direction.

That is not the only approach I use for Day Trading. Sometimes, I look at multiple correlated instruments; using same Real Time Intraday Timeframe, and then choose the one that is likely to give me the Highest Probability of Success or Best Reward Risk Ratio or both.

For E-Mini Day Trade, I often use this correlation approach. 

I will use two symbols. One is ES - E-Mini S&P 500 Future. And the other is NQ - E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Future. These two symbols are usually strongly correlated. Moving up and down together on an intraday time frame.  But not necessarily with the same force. Some days ES is stronger. And some other days NQ is more powerful. For Day Trading in the Long direction, we chose the stronger of the pair. And for Shorting, we use the weaker of the pair.

Now, what is meant by "strong" and "weak" here? Is it the different percentage moves that we see in Real Time data feed? Obviously, that is one estimate of strength. However, from a Superior Profit Day Trader's perspective, that is not the optimal way to measure force and use it in a trading decision. 

What works a lot better is to see the movement of the two symbols within a set of reference price levels or Pivots. The CUE Fine Tune Real Time template is ideal for that.

This CUE Fine Tune template is designed specifically for Day Trading. You can also use it for precision entry of Swing Trading.

Fine Tune template has automatically calculated dynamic pivot levels (horizontal dotted lines) as well as very smart auto-drawn-trendlines; Memory Lines as we call them. These provide the reference price levels to help us decide which symbol is stronger and which one is weaker.

CUE Fine Tune also has the very responsive (and thus; suitable for Day Trading) Stretch Release up/down arrow signal to decide quickly and unambiguously exactly when to enter a "reversal" trade; trade opposite to the immediately prevailing direction. 

Let us put all that together in a real life case. This Day Trade opportunity came during regular E-Mini trading hours on 15th August 2016. I will use the 10-minute chart here. However, traders can use 5 Minute or 1 Minute interval too if they choose to do that. Personally, for Day Trading E-Mini Futures, I find 5 or 10 Minute interval provides the balance between being on the trade early. So I can capture a significant chunk of the move. But not too soon that I get whipsawed often. 

Here are the charts of ES and NQ - side by side - using CUE Fine Tune template using 10 Minute interval. 
​The numbers below refers to the respective markings on the chart:

(1) I first assess which one of ES and NQ was stronger at Close on the day before. That is, at Close (4 PM EST) of the day on 14th Aug. ES had Closed somewhat below Day's High whereas NQ had Closed almost at Day's High. So, at Close, using the Day's High and Day's Close as reference levels, NQ was stronger on 14th Aug.

​(2) Next day, on 15th August, both ES and NQ opened with Gap Up.

(3) Both ES and NQ went above Early Range High and became Overbought at that level; as indicated by Stretch signal (cyan and green dots on top of the Candle).

(4) Neither instrument could continue the rally from the Overbought Stretch condition. Instead, both became weak as seen by Stretch Release signal (down arrow on top of the Candle). Both symbols displayed three Stretch Release indicator three times before they fell.

Both symbols looked similar at this point on the chart. However, there were signs that ES was weaker than NQ. For example, ES had a Candle Flow color turning Bearish magenta before NQ. Also, on the third Stretch Release Candle, ES crossed below Early Range High. However, NQ remained above Early Range High pivot level.

Using the above analysis, I concluded that ES was weaker than NQ. Both at 14th Aug Close and also after 15th Aug Open.

And therefore decided that for a Short trade, ES would be a preferred candidate.

I will now explain the Short trade execution using the ES chart below using 10 Minute Interval and CUE Fine Tune template.
​The numbers below refers to the respective markings on the chart:

(1) I took the Short trade on the third Stretch Release sign. ES crossed below Early Range High at the same time. And Candle Flow color turned Bearish magenta. These three signs together made the Short entry a High Probability Trade.

(2) I placed Stop Order immediately upon entering the trade at just above Day's High. This was a small risk amount relative to ES's usual daily move range. This Stop Level was never violated.

(3) After my entry, ES fell. And the trade Profit soon surpassed the Risk taken. I closed half position at this point.

(4) Immediately after booking partial profit, I moved Stop to Breakeven level. That is, to the Entry Price Level. Breakeven Stop was never hit.

(5)  At day's Close (4 PM EST), I closed the remaining position.

Following are the salient points of this disciplined and profitable Day Trade using E-Mini Future.

A) I selected ES over NQ for a Short trade by observing the symbols' move within CUE Fine Tune pivot levels.

B) I patiently waited for both NQ and ES to turn Bearish. And executed the trade without hesitation when multiple signals were aligned.

C) I placed the Stop Order immediately upon trade entry to manage risk.

D) I booked partial profit as soon as Risk amount was covered; making it a Risk-Free Trade from then onward.

E) I closed the entire trade at the end of the day. I had planned it as a Day Trade. And closed it as a Day Trade.

​This Day Trade was taken on E-Mini Future. However, the same technique of choosing one particular instrument from multiple correlated instruemnts for Day Trading by usign reference pivot levels of CUE Fine Tune template can be applied to other trading instruments like Stocks in similar industry, to Forex pairs etc.

For learning more detail of the pivot levels, Stretch Release, Candle Flow, etc. - which are part of CUE Global System, you may refer to the training material at Superior Profit Education Center.

And also feel free to register for our Live Class held on a regular basis. Where you will meet other traders from around the world discussing Market and potential trade set-ups.

Sagar

Wednesday, August 17, 2016

VR Tutorial Looking at Northern Dynasty - NAK

In this three minute video, top market timer Mark Leibovit discusses his recent Northern Dynasty trade.



Happy Trading.