LEIBOVIT VOLUME REVERSAL TUTORIAL FOR UNITED STATES OIL - OIL - JANUARY 25, 2016

A rising 5/3/3 stochastic for eight days presaged Thursday's Positive Leibovit Volume Reversal in USO which was the buy trigger to jump on to the long side. The Volume Reversal (VR) comes as close to the proverbial 'bell and whistle' at market tops and bottoms and Wednesday may have indeed been the big low.  Not knowing that at VRtrader.com we decided to take the trade with a view to repurchase if the opening gap on Friday is filled this week using Wednesday's low as a stop.

https://youtu.be/IafClaIdhjk

A recent series of Leibovit Positive Volume Reversals (VRs) confirmed the recent surge in the Treasury Bond market.

From the desk of Mark Leibovit, 

A recent series of Leibovit Positive Volume Reversals (VRs) confirmed the recent surge in the Treasury Bond market.  Note the VRs on December 31, January 6, and January 12 in the accompanying video. Also, note the confirmation of the 5/3/3 stochastic during this process. A big Leibovit Positive VR back on November 12 pretty much kicked into gear this entire up leg. 

https://youtu.be/YbuWzJ4Mc4E

121815 MS Weekly - What is Missing in Your Risk Analysis?

Risk Analysis versus Gain Profit Potential

The least used and most often improperly used analysis by Technical and Retail Traders is Risk

Analysis. All too often, Traders are choosing high risk stock picks without realizing it. This

analysis is NOT using percentages, but rather using the technical patterns within the chart in

order to do the following:

1. Find the lowest Risk trade from a group of potential stock picks.

2. Determine the Risk versus the Gain Profit Potential BEFORE placing an order.

3. Determining the correct Stop Loss placement to avoid setting the Stop at a whipsaw

point, or not using a Stop at all due to not knowing how to use and set them correctly.

4. Selecting the strongest picks based on Risk Analysis, which reveals weaknesses in stock

picks that do not show up in Candlestick Patterns or MACD patterns.

5. Choosing stocks with Risk that you can tolerate. Too many times traders get greedy, and

choose picks that have higher Risk than they are ready to accept.

First of all, Stop Losses should NEVER be calculated using Percentages. This is an ancient, out of

date method that is the main reason why so many Retail Traders believe that Stop Losses do

not work. They are accidentally and unintentionally setting Stops based on a Percentage that

puts them right in the middle of a profit taking area where High Frequency Trading HFT will

trigger, OR where Dark Pool bargain hunting Time Weighted Average Price TWAP orders are

sitting and waiting for price to drop into that range.

Trading the automated markets along with Market Participant Groups that use Time Weighted

Average Price TWAP orders, Volume Weighted Average Price VWAP orders, and High Frequency

Trading HFT predatory millisecond orders requires using MODERN analysis and tools. It is hard

to abandon techniques learned on the internet that appear everywhere but in order to be

successful, Traders need to change how they approach trading.

When choosing a stock to trade among a group of stock picks, consider the Risk of the trade

based on technical Support levels appropriate for your Trading Style. Trading Styles include

Intraday Swing, Swing/Momentum Trading, Position Trading, and several others.

Strategies are selected AFTER a Trading Style has been chosen. Certain Trading Styles require

specific technical patterns, candlesticks, and Support levels for optimal trading success.  Buying

long versus Selling Short also changes Support and Resistance levels for each Trading Style.

As a chart example for Risk Analysis see Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) below, which has an

Engulfing Black candlestick Sell Short signal.

As a Sell Short pick consideration, the chart shows that the Resistance is above price as

indicated by the red line. This is where the Stop Loss must be set rather than a Percentage. A

tight Percentage puts the Stop Loss in the middle of the Resistance which will create a whipsaw,

and a larger percentage such as 8 or 10% puts the Stop Loss far too wide adding Risk to the

trade.

The next area of calculation must be the Support, which is where the stock is likely to bounce

up as indicated by the green line. This is the highs of November, and may not hold over time

but is the first level of Support for this stock if it sells down further. Support therefore is based

not on a Percentage but the technical levels where bounces occur from Buy to Cover

professionals closing their position, OR from “Buy on the Dip” Small Lot Investors rushing to buy

into what they believe is a bargain.

Summary

By calculating the difference between the Resistance and the Entry Price, the Risk of the trade

is determined. By calculating the Support level where the stock is mostly likely to pause or

bounce, the run Gain Profit Potential is determined. The final step is dividing the points at Risk

by the points Gain Potential. Risk to Profit should be 3/1 or higher. Most of the time Retail

Traders are trading stocks with higher points at Risk than there are potential points to Gain.

Taking the time to calculate Risk using Risk Analysis will significantly improve your profitability

by eliminating high risk and low profit trades.

Trade Wisely,

Martha Stokes CMT

TechniTrader technical analysis using a MetaStock chart, courtesy of Innovative Market Analysis, LLC dba

MetaStock.

www.TechniTrader.com

Chartered Market Technician

Instructor & Developer of TechniTrader Stock and Option Courses

This weekly stock discussion is sponsored by TechniTrader.com a MetaStock® Partner



Copyright ©2015 Decisions Unlimited, Inc. dba TechniTrader. All rights reserved.

TechniTrader is also a registered trademark of Decisions Unlimited, Inc.



Disclaimer: All statements are the opinions of TechniTrader, its instructors and/or employees, and are not to be construed as

anything more than an opinion. TechniTrader is not a broker or an investment advisor; it is strictly an educational service. There

is risk in trading financial assets and derivatives. Due diligence is required for any investment. It should not be assumed that the

methods or techniques presented cannot result in losses. Examples presented are for educational purposes only.

LEIBOVIT VR TUTORIAL FOR METASTOCK - U.S. OIL - USO - DEC 14, 2015

From the desk of Mark Leibovit

The decline in Crude Oil both longer term and short term were clearly signaled by the Leibovit Volume Reversal. I am often asked how the Leibovit Volume Reversal works in different time frames.  Here, we look at the monthly, weekly and daily charts.  All are demonstrated  utilizing the Sequential version of the Leibovit Volume Reversal. When you subscribe you receive all three versions (Sequential, Directional and 2-Day)  but I prefer using the Sequential because it shows all negative and positive Leibovit Volume Reversals. Please check the video on the Metastock product page for more information.  In the monthly chart, note the big negative Leibovit VR formed in July, 2014 confirmed by the declining 5/3/3 stochastic presaged the huge multi-month sell-off that is still occurring now. The weekly chart shows the two recent negative Leibovit VRs on Nov 9 and Nov 30 which provided additional confirmation of the current short-term downtrend - again confirmed by a negative 5/3/3 stochastic. And, finally, the daily chart reveals the Nov 25 negative Leibovit VR, the most recent short-term trading signal also confirmed by a declining 5/3/3 stochastic.

https://youtu.be/GnKftSG1_HY

Happy Trading
Jeffrey Gibby
Business Development Manager

LEIBOVIT VOLUME REVERSAL TUTORIAL ON METASTOCK FOR UUP AND SGOL - DEC 7 2015

From the desk of Mark Leibovit,

A Positive Leibovit Volume Reversal on November 3 in SGOL - the ETFS PHYSICAL SWISS GOLD ETF (Daily chart) combined with a rising 5/3/3 stochastic set the stage for Friday's big rally that posted a second day of increasing volume. SGOL. The downside gap of 107.75 formed back on November 16 should now be filled. SGOL closed at 106.05. Of course, it could go further than that, perhaps up the 50 day moving average which now stands at 109.29.   On the weekly chart, SGOL posted an upside 'Key Reversal' pattern, but unfortunately not on increasing volume. Still, the pattern is bullish.

A Negative Leibovit Volume Reversal was formed in UUP  in the Daily chart (Powershares U.S. Dollar Index) on November 3 accompanied by a declining 5/3/3 stochastic.  Though UUP held its 50 day moving average for this go-around, it appears the trend has now turned lower in the U.S. Dollar confirmed by the 'Key Reversal' on increasing volume in the Weekly chart.

All are shown in the accompanying video.

Happy Trading!

These products are not a recommendation to buy or sell, but rather a guideline to interpreting the specified analysis methods. Only investors who are aware of the risks inherent in securities trading should use this information. MetaStock in no way endorses the products and services advertised and accept no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of these products or their contents.

METASTOCK -LEIBOVIT VOLUME REVERSAL TUTORIAL FOR DISNEY -DIS - NOVEMBER 30, 2015

From the desk of Top Market Timer, Mark Leibovit:

Last week I showed a beautiful example of a Postive Leibovit Volume Reversal at work in Nike (NKE) and this week I have a beautiful examle of a Negative Leibovit Volume Reversal.  This was posted in Disney (DIS) on November 24, ahead of Friday's negative ESPN story which drove the stock down sharply intraday.  My favored 5/3/3 stochastic helped confirm the trade.  

https://youtu.be/Yp4xj_I8ywU

Happy Trading.

112015 MS Weekly – Buying Into Strength in Stocks

“Buying Into Strength” in Stocks

Use A Professional Trader Strategy  

Buying Into Strength in stocks is a standard professional strategy that helps Retail and Technical Traders avoid whipsaw action, and temporary retracements caused by large lot profit taking.

The chart example below will help explain why buying into strength is the preferred choice of professional traders, rather than using a Limit Order that gets you in at “a better price.”

The daily chart view in this example shows a consolidation, then a move up a little and then another consolidation. Say for this chart example you are trading the Swing Style resting day entry patterns, and feel this may be a good entry point before the stock moves up again.  

The rule of entry is to “Buy Into Strength.” However you have heard other traders talking about getting into a stock using a Limit Order that says, “Buy Me In At This Price Or BETTER” which means “LOWER” in the marketplace. You feel pretty good about this new strategy, so you enter a Limit Order to buy into this stock.

The next day the stock drops, but the order is executed. You are not too worried because of confidence that this stock is trending up, using your favorite indicator MACD which is a momentum Moving Average based indicator. See the MACD indicator window below for this stock.

You hold for several more days but the stock continues to move down rather than up. A big Engulfing Black Candlestick forms, and the choice is to either sell out at a small loss or hold on desperately hoping that the stock will reverse.

Those who choose to hold hoping it will turn around, find themselves losing even more money as the stock drops further. Now by this time most short term Retail Traders have given up and sold out.

The reason many traders lost money is that they bought into weakness using a Limit Order, allowing the computers of the market to buy them in as the stock was falling in price. Not a good idea. The notion is to “save” money with a Limit Order, but more often than not the above scenario happens.

Buying Into Strength in Stocks means the following:

1.  Analyzing the strength of the VOLUME indicator as well as giant to large lot Institutional Investing Dark Pool activity, to determine that the stock is going to move up and has enough strength to sustain that move.

2.  Using a controlled bracketed order that ONLY triggers if the stock does move up into a personal buy zone, and also controls what price is paid for the stock.

The “Buy into Strength” bracketed order ONLY triggers when the stock moves up into your order price. Then you would be in a stock that is moving up making nice profits, rather than a stock moving down.

Summary

The chart example did have upside potential. However many Pro Traders took profits early and many Retail Traders got over zealous and started Selling Short, which caused a brief correction.  

The downside sell off was very brief because during the same time as the profit taking and selling short, Mutual Funds were being invested by those small lot Investors who use them. This increased the money in funds accounts, allowing giant to large lot Mutual and Pension Fund Institutional Dark Pool Investors to jump into good stocks, which is revealed in the TechniTrader Quiet Accumulation TTQA Indicator in the bottom chart window.

The Gap took the stock back to its original buy in price, and the stock ran up in a Velocity Run for 4 days. Limit Orders are usually used improperly by Retail Traders, and are the cause of many poor trades. Notice that the TechniTrader® indicators were weak on the initial setup, but much stronger after the gap.

Trade Wisely,

Martha Stokes CMT

TechniTrader technical analysis using a MetaStock chart, courtesy of Innovative Market Analysis, LLC dba MetaStock

Instructor & Developer of TechniTrader Stock and Option Courses

This weekly stock discussion is sponsored by TechniTrader.com a MetaStock® Partner

Copyright ©2015 Decisions Unlimited, Inc. dba TechniTrader. All rights reserved.

TechniTrader is also a registered trademark of Decisions Unlimited, Inc.

Disclaimer: All statements are the opinions of TechniTrader, its instructors and/or employees, and are not to be construed as anything more than an opinion. TechniTrader is not a broker or an investment advisor; it is strictly an educational service. There is risk in trading financial assets and derivatives. Due diligence is required for any investment. It should not be assumed that the methods or techniques presented cannot result in losses. Examples presented are for educational purposes only.